Independents’ Day

I billed last night's by-elections as an unpredictable bunch and, although the results weren't released until this morning, they didn't disappoint. An Independent held off the Scottish Nationalists to gain a seat from the Conservatives in Scotland. The Tories were again beaten by an Independent in East Hertfordshire and only just held off an Independent challenge in Suffolk. Elsewhere, the Conservatives were almost embarrassed by Labour in Walsall but they easily held a ward on the Isle of Wight.

I'll start in Forres, Moray where, at the third time of asking (since the General Election), we had a close election under AV. The vacancy had arisen following the resignation of the Conservative Councillor Iain Young for health reasons and it seemed the main competition for the Tories would be the Scottish Nationalists. However, although the SNP and the Tories were comfortably first and second in 2007 the combined first preferences from the four Independent candidates would put them ahead of the two political parties. As there was only one seat up for grabs last night it seemed possible a strong Independent candidate could prevail if they could secure the second preferences from the other Independents. This is almost exactly what happened. The SNP candidate Aaron McLean was 211 votes ahead of the Independent Lorna Creswell on first preferences but that lead soon whittled away. Cresswell attracted more preferences than MacLean from each eliminated candidate and she eventually won by 345 votes. The Conservatives, who were defending the seat, performed badly as their share of first preferences dropped by 14.4%. Things didn't improved when the transfers were allocated as the Tory candidate was overtaken by another Independent, essentially finishing fourth. The SNP will be disappointed to lose a lead that large but they do tend to struggle to pick up preferences from other candidates. Marmite comes to mind!

		Stage [Quota 1606]
Candidate	1stP%	1	2		3		4		5		6		7		8
Aaron McLean (SNP)	24.1%	773	774	3%	789	11%	800	5%	837	18%	899	14%	950	10%	1045	11%
Lorna Creswell (IND)	17.5%	562	576	47%	615	29%	686	35%	726	20%	878	33%	999	24%	1399	47%
Paul McBain (CON)	14.4%	463	464	3%	476	9%	486	5%	491	2%	511	4%
Anne Skene (IND)	14.4%	463	464	3%	491	20%	541	25%	572	15%	695	27%	860	32%
Fabio Villani (GRN)	12.5%	401	405	13%	419	10%	433	7%	459	13%
Mark Cascarino (LAB)	6.1%	195	195	0%	201	4%	205	2%
Janet Kennedy (IND)	6.0%	192	194	7%	201	5%
Andy Anderson (SSC)	4.1%	132	135	10%
Jane Cotton (IND)	0.9%	30
No-Transfer		0	4	13%	19	11%	60	20%	126	32%	228	22%	402	34%	767	42%

NB. Italics are the share of preferences from the last eliminated candidate

In the sole District Council election yesterday an Independent held a seat against a Conservative challenge in East Hertfordshire. The Tories managed a 1.9% swing towards them but it was nowhere near enough as the Independent triumphed with almost 60% of the vote.

The final Independent challenge came in Suffolk where the Conservatives were defending the Tower ward. The by-election took place following the resignation of Paul Farmer for health reasons. It was a close result in 2009 with the top three candidates coming within 200 votes of each other so we were expecting a tight contest. David Nettleton was the unfortunate Independent who came third in this two member ward last time and he stood again for this vacancy. The Greens came second at the last election but their vote dropped considerably with most of it seeming to go to the Labour candidate. This left the Tories and Nettleton to fight it out for the seat and the Independent was narrowly defeated again. The Conservative candidate Stefan Oliver won by 55 votes as the percentage shares for the top two remained almost unchanged from 18 months ago. The Tories stood still as Nettleton increased his share by 1.2%. All this leaves the Conservatives majority on the council unchanged.

A more traditional by-election result could be found in Walsall, although there was a notable absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate. The vacancy in the Rushall-Shelfield ward arose following the death of Conservative Counillor Albert Griffiths. Labour finished second here in 2010 and required a 10% swing to take the seat so when it emerged the Lib Dems weren't fielding a candidate there were rumours they were trying to help their national coalition partner. However, the local association denied this, insisting a candidate had been selected but "due to a combination of illness and a clerical error" the nomination papers were late. It is debatable whether the Lib Dem absence helped the Conservatives anyway as most of their vote share appeared to go to Labour. It was not quite enough to produce a shock gain though as the Conservatives clung on with a 28 vote majority. This means their small majority on Walsall Council remains unchanged, but the local Tories must be worrying about next May's election after this result.

Finally, the by-election for the Chale, Niton & Whitwell ward on the Isle of Wight was the only one this week to have all three major parties standing. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Conservative Councillor William Myatt-Willington for work related reasons. It looked like a safe hold and it turned out that way. There was a 3.7% swing from the Tories to the Liberal Democrats but this is a little flattering to the yellows. Their vote share remained virtually unchanged from 18 months ago as Labour polled 8% from nowhere.

Moray Council												Suffolk County Council
IND		SNP			CON			LAB				CON		LD		LAB			GRN				IND				UKIP
12	+1	10	-		2	-1		2		-		55	-	11	-	4		-	2		-		2		-		1	-
Candidate				1stP			Vote %		+/-			Candidate					Votes					Vote %				+/-
Aaron McLean				773			24.1%		-5.8%			Stefan Oliver (E)					1005					28.8%				0.0%
Lorna Creswell (E)				562			17.5%		N/A			David Nettleton					950					27.2%				1.2%
Paul McBain				463			14.4%		-14.4%			Kevin Hind					759					21.7%				12.6%
Anne Skene				463			14.4%		N/A			Pippa Judd					479					13.7%				-13.4%
Fabio Villani				401			12.5%		12.5%			David Chappell					300					8.6%				-0.4%
Mark Cascarino				195			6.1%		6.1%
Janet Kennedy				192			6.0%		N/A
Andy Anderson				132			4.1%		-4.0%
Jane Cotton				30			0.9%		N/A

 

Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council														Isle of Wight Council
CON		LAB		LD			IND			DLP				CON		IND		LD			LAB					OTH
33	-	18	-	6		-	2		-	1		-		24	-	10	-	4		-	1			-		1		-
Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-			Candidate					Votes				Vote %				+/-
Lorna Rattigan (E)					639			42.0%			-1.8%			Dave Stewart (E)					510				53.6%				-7.7%
Richard Worrall					611			40.1%			13.1%			Malcolm Groves					365				38.4%				-0.3%
Bill Vaughan					141			9.3%			9.3%			Josh Cooper					76				8.0%				8.0%
Tim Melville					90			5.9%			-2.3%
Mark Beech					42			2.8%			2.8%
N/C (LD)					0			0.0%			-17.8%
N/C (GRN)					0			0.0%			-3.2%