According to a recent study by Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, they expect the national projected vote shares for the local elections to be: Lab 38% (+12%) Con 35% (-5%) Lib Dem 17% (-7%) Others 10% (unchanged) which they believe will see a change of: Lab +1,300 councillors Con –975 councillors Lib Dems –375 councillors Others +50 councillors. Based on this information (and using it to project the councils I have data for), my forecasts for the following councils is:
North Somerset: Con 40 (-6) Lab 10 (+7) Ind 8 (+2) Lib Dem 2 (-3) Green 1 (n/c)
Conservative HOLD
North Warwickshire: Lab 22 (+8) Con 12 (-9) Ind 1 (+1)
Labour GAIN from Conservative
South Norfolk: Con 34 (-4) Lib Dem 11 (+4)
Conservative HOLD
St. Edmundsbury: Con 28 (-8) Lab 8 (+5) Lib Dem 5 (+2) Ind 4 (+1)
Conservative HOLD
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