Wednesday 8 June 2011

Belfast West By-Election : A Preview

There are very few constituencies that do not follow the established rules of elections. Ceredigion (my home constituency) last followed the electoral rules in 1966 when Labour (on the wave of support for Harold Wilson’s second term) gained the seat from the Liberals, another seat would be Orkney and Shetland (which last followed the electoral tide by voting Conservative in the 1935 election, but has been Liberal or Liberal Democrat since 1950), however there are a few constituencies who have cocked such a snook at the electoral tides as to say “Okay, you elect Labour with a 179 majority if you want, we’ll just carry on with our own particular views if you don’t mind!” and one of those constituencies is Belfast West.

There has been a Belfast West constituency since the 1922 general election (the year after the Irish Free State became the Republic of Ireland) and for those first elections to Westminster it followed a very unionist pattern electing a Conservative (yes, that’s right, I said a Conservative) MP from 1922 until a by-election in March 1943 when the seat was gained by a Northern Ireland Labour candidate, however come the 1945 Labour landslide election the newly elected MP did not enjoy the chance to sit on the Labour benches as he was re-elected as an Independent Labour MP which brings us to modern electoral history starting with the 1950 general election.

James MacManaway (representing the Ulster Unionists) managed to bring the seat back to it’s Unionist roots at that election with a majority of 3,378 (5.2%) over Jack Beattie representing the Irish Labour Party and in 1950 the seat was a bitter two way scrap, not that this mattered to Jimmy Steele who polled a measly 1,482 votes (2.2%) for a party called Sinn Fein. However, the UUP’s joy was very short lived as just months after gaining the seat, the electors of the constituency were asked to go to the polls again for a by-election. Thankfully the UUP were able to hold the seat, and Thomas Teevan was elected to Westminster but his majority was now only 913 (1.5%) on a swing from UUP to Irish Lab of 1.8%. And the reason for this increase, Sinn Fein did not contest the by-election.

Indeed, when the next Westminster election came, Belfast West was expected to be a battle royal (which it turned out to be) as Jack Beattie gained the seat for Irish Labour with a majority of just 25 (0.0%) on a swing of 0.8% from UUP to Irish Labour. However, by the time of the 1955 general election, Sinn Fein were back on the scene and their candidate proved to be the downfall for Mr, Beattie as Patricia McLaughlin gained the seat with a majority of 18,141 (30.9%) on a swing of 15.5% from Irish Labour to UUP. Although it should be pointed out that the reason why Irish Labour lost the seat was because they shed 22.6% of the vote of which 14.4% went to Eamonn Boyce (the Sinn Fein candidate) and the remainder (8.3%) went to the UUP.

By the time the 1959 election came along, any idea that Belfast West was playing to the Westminster electoral rules was thrown out of the window as John Brennan stood against Mrs. McLaughlin and a new Sinn Fein candidate (Thomas Heenan) as an Independent Labour Group candidate (and managed to poll a very respectable 20,062 votes (37.6%) however despite putting on an extra 10.3% on the Irish Labour vote in 1955, Mrs. MacLaughlin was re-elected as the UUP member for Belfast West with a majority of 8,836 (16.6%), but by the time of the 1964 election (having held the seat since 1955) Mrs. MacLaughlin did not contest that election and so the UUP mantle was handed to a certain James Kilfedder (better known to us of a more modern electoral era as the Ulster Popular Unionist member for North Down who died in 1995), but in 1964 he was the duly nominated UUP candidate and he was up against a right collection of parties. You had the Republican Labour party (Harry Diamond), Northern Ireland Labour party (Billy Boyd) and an Independent Republican candidate (Billy McMillen). Needless to say with a split opposition, Mr. Kilfedder was elected (with a majority of 6,659 (12.8%) and served the electors of Belfast West for the whole of fifteen months as Harold Wilson (bolstered by his party’s performance in the Kingston upon Hull North by-election) called a general election. An election that saw Mr. Kilfedder defeated by a Republican Labour candidate by the name of Gerald Fitt (who had a majority of 2,011 (4.1%) on a swing to him of 8.5% compared to the election of 1959. And he must have been a good MP as he was relected in 1970 (on a 0.75% swing to him).

However, by the time of the February 1974 general elections, there were changes in Northern Ireland (not least of which was the Sunningdale agreement) which meant that the electors of Belfast West had voted for their representations to the Northern Ireland Assembly (as was in 1972), however that didn’t last long and neither did the Republican Labour party either so that when Heath called the election Gerald Fitt was the candidate for the newly formed Social Democratic and Labour Party (or SDLP for short), and that party wasn’t the only new party facing the electorate.

At that election, the Democratic Unionist Party (formed by the Reverend Ian Paisley who had won Antrim North at the last election as a Protestant Unionist candidate) contested the seat as did another Independent Republican, Billy Boyd (having another stab for the Northern Ireland Labour Party) and a Republican Clubs candidate. Of those candidates it was only John McQuade (for the DUP) who came anywhere near to beating Mr. Fitt, as he was re-elected with a majority of 2,180 (4.6%), and when Harold Wilson went to the country again in October 1974 to seek his overall majority, Mr. Fitt was re-elected again (this time with a majority of 5,556 (12.5%) on a swing of 4% from DUP to SDLP and made his merry way back to Westminster (little knowing perhaps what influence he would have in that parliament).

James Callaghan lost the vote of no confidence by 1 vote and with rumours rushing around that one of the Northern Ireland MP’s (who could have forced a tie and made Mr. Speaker keep the government run) had made his way to Westminster, locked himself away and not been seen in the chamber the whole day, it was perhaps not that suprising that Northern Ireland was not best pleased with the manner it’s MP’s had been conducting themselves in and nowhere was this seen more than in Belfast West, Yes, Gerald Fitt held the seat with a majority of 8,235 (24.7%) on a swing of 8.4% from DUP to SDLP, but with the SDLP vote down 8.5%, the DUP vote down 25.3% and the turnout down 11%, people were not that impressed and even Gerald Fitt had to agree so when the boundary review for the next election suggested that Northern Ireland (having rejected all forms of assembly) should have an extra five seats (taking the tally to 17) and this meant an expanded Belfast West, Gerald Fitt announced that he was standing down as the MP for the SDLP and would contest the election as an Independent Socialist candidate and credit due he did a marvellous campaign managing to poll a very healthy 10,326 votes, however he was beaten by the offical SDLP candidate (Joe Hendron) by 608 votes with the UUP trailing in some 8,000 votes behind them both (having lost 19% of their support) and yet, the seat was GAINED. So who was the new MP for Belfast West if it wasn’t the Independent Socialist candidate or the offical SDLP candidate?

Having not contested the seat since the 1959 election, Gerry Adams won the seat for Sinn Fein (with a majority of 5,445 (13.0%) and became the first Sinn Fein MP ever to be elected to Westminster for that party.

I say elected to Westminster, although as part of their party constitution, he never actually sat on the Westminster benches and so when the 1987 election rolled along people were wondering “Would an MP elected to sit at Westminster but never actually sitting be re-elected?”. The answer was YES, as Gerry Adams was re-elected to the seat, but saw his majority cut to 2,221 (5.9%) on a swing to the SDLP of 3%, a trend that continued at the 1992 general election when Joe Hendron was elected to the Commons with a majority of just 589 (1.5%) over Gerry Adams and the honourable member for Belfast West was able to take his seat at Westminster.

The 1992 – 1997 parliament saw Northern Ireland come to the fore as never before. The 1993 Downing Street Agreement was followed by the 1996 Northern Ireland Forum elections and in those elections Sinn Fein laid down the gauntlet to the SDLP in Belfast West (as they polled nearly 60% of the vote) so it was perhaps no huge surprise to hear that Belfast West elected Gerry Adams into Parliament with a majority of 7,909 (17.2%) at that election and started to turn Belfast West into the Sinn Fein fiefdom that we know so well. In 2001, Sinn Fein polled 66% of the vote, in 2005, 70% and at the last election a staggering 71% of the vote (which to put it into context was only slightly lower than the Labour vote in Liverpool, Walton and only fractionally higher than the Labour vote in Knowsley and was a full 7% higher than Gordon Brown’s vote in Kirkcaldy!). But as we know, Gerry Adams MP is no more (having resigned from Westminster and now elected as the honourable TD for Louth in the Irish Republic) and a new MP will be elected tomorrow, given the size of the Sinn Fein vote last May I think we can say pretty confidently who the next MP for Belfast West will be, but that’s not for me to pre judge the electorate of a constituency who are more than capable of cocking a snook at Westminster.

Italics indicate a Westminster by-election, Bold italics indicates an Assembly election
Year
UUP
DUP
SDLP
Sinn Fein
Alliance
Worker’s
Ind
NI Lab
Rep Lab
Irish Lab
Others
1950
33,917


1,482





30,539

1950
31,796








30,833

1951
33,149








33,174

1955
34,191


8,447





20,062

1959
28,898


4,416


20,062




1964
21,337





3,256
12,579
14,678


1966
24,281







26,292


1970
27,451







30,649


Feb 1974

17,374
19,554



5,662
1,989


3,088
Oct 1974

16,265
21,821



2,690



3,750
1979
8,245
3,716
16,480

2,204


540


2,284
1983
2,435

10,934
16,379

1,893
10,326




1987
4,646

14,641
16,862

1,819





1992
4,766

17,415
16,826

750




213
1997
1,556

17,753
25,662

721




193
2001
2,541
2,641
7,754
27,096

736
98



116
2003
1,170
2,544
6,250
21,368
75
407
211



829
2005
779
3,652
5,033
24,348

432
147



154
2007
558
3,661
4,110
23,631
127
434
68



1,201
2010
1,000
2,436
5,261
22,840
596






2011
1,471
2,587
4,567
22,904
365
586
122



2,045

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