By-election round-up

So onto this week’s by-election round-up, slightly belatedly.

There were five seats up this week, two in Kensington and Chelsea, one in Essex and two in Scotland. Without further ado let’s start with Chelmsford Central, in Essex.

This by-election was kicked off by the controversial death of incumbent Margaret Hutchon.

By-Election Candidate		2010	Change from 2009
Dick Madden	1496	43.6%	+4.4%
Graham Pooley	1323	38.6%	-13.3%
Russell Kennedy	610	17.8%	+8.8%

A GAIN for the Tories in Chelmsford Central then. Hutchon was apparently locally popular and so a personal vote may explain some of the Lib Dem fall, though there also seems to have been a decent shift to Labour, but in 2009 a Green Party candidate beat Labour into third so part of it is also probably Green votes flowing to Labour without a candidate.

Next on Kensington and Chelsea, where two seats of Brompton and Queen’s Gate were up. Both were, not unusually for Kensington and Chelsea, heavily Conservative and we thought it unlikely that they would fall. We were right:

Brompton

By-Election Candidate		2011	Change from 2010
Louis Mosley	728	79.6%	+9.8%
Mark Scutter	101	11.0%	-2.3%
Mary Harris	86	9.4%	-10.2%

Queen’s Gate

By-Election Candidate		2011	Change from 2010
Sam Mackover	663	73.7%	+2.8%
John Blamey	100	11.1%	-8.2%
Keith Stirling	82	9.1%	-1.8%
David Coburn	54	6.0%	+6.0%

Two easy Conservative holds then. In fact the Tories gained votes in both wards, despite a UKIP candidate in Queen’s Gate. The vote increase can probably be explained by turnout: 16.5% in Brompton and 14.7% in Queen’s Gate. I suspect that Conservative voters would have been slightly more motivated to turn out as I guess they were probably the only party that bothered to campaign in any meaningful way (even then I doubt they campaigned particularly hard).

Onto Scotland next and for this I’ll turn over to Kristopher Keane.

This week's two Scottish by-elections both saw the SNP continuing to win big swings in their favour. They very comfortably held their seat in Falkirk while in the Highlands they narrowly won on first preferences, losing to one of the independent candidates after transfers.

In Bo'ness and Blackness, the SNP share of the first preferences rose by over 10%, and they reached the quota on first preferences alone with no need for transfers to be counted, safely holding the seat as well as holding Labour's plurality to just a single seat. The Labour share remained more or less steady though, with a significant drop for the Tories and the lack of an SSP candidate this time around making up the net swing.

Bo'ness and Blackness
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Sandy Turner	1621	57.8%	+10.6%
David Aitchison	893	31.8%	-0.1%
Lynn Munro	231	8.2%	-4.5%
Gerry Lawton	59	2.1%	+2.1%

Falkirk Council
Lab		SNP		CON		IND		VAC
14	-	13	-	2	-	3	-	0	-

The far more interesting night (actually following day, grrr) was had at the count in Highland for the Tain and Easter Ross seat. The first preferences gave the SNP a very narrow lead over independent Fiona Robertson of just 26 votes, an absolutely massive increase in their share by 26% - more than tripling their first preference votes compared to 2007.

In something of a turn up for the books based on recent performance, the Lib Dems marginally increased their first preference share as well. Although rather than any increase in base support, I think this had more to do with the lack of Labour and Conservative candidates this time around as well as a huge campaign by the Lib Dems including their new Scottish leader making a personal visit to the ward.

Second time independent candidate Michael Herd was the first candidate to be eliminated, his transfers cutting the SNP majority to 20. The elimination of the Lib Dem candidate next put Robertson into the lead with a mere five votes with the 547 votes of the other independent still to play for. However, these votes transferred strongly in favour of Robertson who ended up winning the final round with a three-figure lead although failing to reach quota.

Tain and Easter Ross
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Derek Louden	837	37.8%	+25.9%
Fiona Robertson	811	36.7%	+36.7%
Ruairidh Mackenzie	467	21.1%	+21.1%
Antony Gardner	307	13.9%	-2.3%
Michael Herd	97	4.4%	-0.9%

	1st Round	2nd Round		3rd Round		4th Round
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Transfers	Votes	Transfers	Votes	Transfers	Votes
Antony Gardner	307	11	318	-318
Michael Herd	97	-97
Derek Louden	837	23	860	68	928	109	1037
Ruairidh Mackenzie	467	14	481	66	547	-547
Fiona Robertson	811	29	840	93	933	271	1204
Nontransferable/Spoilt	17	20	37	91	128	167	295

Highland Council
IND (IG)		LD		SNP		Lab		IND (IMG)		IND (IAG)		IND
24	-	20	-	18	-1	7	-	6	-	4	-	1	1