Saturday 27 August 2011

Labour win both by-elections.

Labour enjoyed victories in both of this week's by-elections, with a particularly good result in North Ayrshire to easily hold off the Scottish Nationalists. The other win was in Bolsover where they regained a ward they had lost to an Independent in recent years.

Bucking the recent trend, this week's Scottish by-election produced a Labour hold on a greatly increased vote share on 2007.  They didn't quite manage to make the quota of 1,965 in the first round, winning 49.2% of the first preferences, but after the four rounds of elimination they reached the quota with a very comfortable majority.

Saltcoats & Stevenston

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Jim Montomerie (E)

1914

48.7%

+13.9%

Nan Wallace

1306

33.2%

+1.3%

Chris Barr

284

7.2%

-0.4%

Jimmy Miller

211

5.4%

+5.4%

Gerard Pollock

114

2.9%

+2.9%

Gordon Bain

56

1.4%

+1.4%

Louise McDaid

43

1.1%

+1.1%

It is not certain why the SNP failed to make a big increase in their vote here.  The Holyrood constituency containing this ward, Cunninghame North, has been SNP since 2007 and in May saw a 10% swing from Labour to the SNP.  Although there may have been a local issue I've overlooked, I have a feeling what may have happened here is that the Independent candidate from 2007 who polled very well has taken his votes overwhelmingly from normal Labour voters.  With that candidate not standing, the first preferences he took in 2007 have returned to Labour, seemingly boosting their vote by a substantial margin.

Amongst the also-rans the Liberal Democrat result is notably bad, coming in 6th place behind the Pensioners Party and an Independent, and only narrowly beating the Socialist Labour Party into last place.  Socialist Labour's transfers unsurprisingly favoured Labour, while the Lib Dems' favoured the SNP and then the Tories.  Historically, Lib Dem transfers around Greater Glasgow have been good for Labour, which is strongly suggestive of left-leaning former Lib Dem voters deserting the party.

The Pensioners Party managed a very reasonable share of the vote for a minor party in a ward they've never contested before, coming fairly close to the Tories for third place, and it was their transfers that finally pushed Labour over the quota. KK

  

 

Stage

By-Election Candidate

1stP

1

2

3

4

5

Jim Montomerie

49.3%

1914

13

30%

1927

9

16%

1936

27

22%

1963

76

32%

2039

Nan Wallace

33.6%

1306

5

12%

1311

15

26%

1326

37

30%

1363

62

26%

1425

Chris Barr

7.3%

284

2

5%

286

11

19%

297

11

9%

308

23

10%

331

Jimmy Miller (Pen)

5.4%

211

6

14%

217

5

9%

222

18

15%

240

-240

  

  

Gerard Pollock (Ind)

2.9%

114

3

7%

117

6

11%

123

-123

  

  

  

  

  

Gordon Bain

1.4%

56

1

2%

57

-57

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Louise McDaid

1.1%

43

-43

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Non-transferable

  

  

13

30%

13

11

19%

24

30

24%

54

79

33%

133

With Labour safely holding their seat, their minority administration will be safe to continue through to the end of the current term next May.  The potential confusion around the role of the 2007 Independent in these results though makes it hard to extrapolate any prediction for what the results will be like then.

North Ayrshire Council

Lab

SNP

Ind

Con

LD

12

-

8

-

5

-

3

-

2

-

Labour also managed a win in the other by-election taking place on Thursday, which had looked a lot more expected than their triumph in North Ayrshire. The by-election in Shirebrook South West, Bolsover DC was taking place following the death of Independent Councillor Alan Waring. He had gained the seat in 2007 but before that Labour were not challenged in this ward. With no Independent candidate standing in this by-election the seat was expected to switch back to Labour and Sandra Peake enjoyed a comfortable victory. She received almost half the votes cast and had a margin of almost 100 votes over the Greens, who had a strong showing in second place taking 25% of the vote in a ward they hadn't stood in before. Labour have a huge majority in Bolsover with the next full Council elections due in 2013. TH

Shirebrook South West

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

Sandra Peake (E)

200

47.4%

Ian Musgrove

103

24.4%

Bob Newholm

76

18.0%

Tom Key

43

10.2%

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